Covid-19 - Are we facing a short-term shock or something worse?

The Covid-19 pandemic is rapidly accelerating and containment measures, to varying degrees, have spread from Asia to Europe and North America.

Economies are shutting down in their wake, causing profound global shockwaves. There is no doubt that we can expect a global recession in the first half of 2020.

Although, importantly, fiscal and monetary responses alongside public health measures are coming into effect. If the latter prove effective, we still expect a significant yet temporary shock followed by a recovery in the second half of the year. The most important question is will the shock be limited to the first half of 2020? If not, we cannot rule out widespread defaults and spiraling unemployment. Investors need to see that the public health measures taken are really effective in tackling the pandemic.

Watch the latest video from our experts for an update on our outlook and our portfolio positioning as we navigate these unprecedented times.