COVID-19: Daily Dashboard

* LO estimate or reported figures
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Lombard Odier calculations

Public health

• Confirmed cases passed the 1.5 million mark globally but the rate of growth has continued to fall and now stands at around 6% as the improving trends continue in almost all affected countries 
   
• The US has revised the statistical model produced by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. The model now estimates a peak of around 60,000 deaths nationally by August; a considerable reduction compared to the previous estimate of about 82,000 published last week
   
• In Europe, conversations about reopening economies continue, based on recent encouraging signs of epidemic’s containment. The European Commission is looking to coordinate approaches to lifting measures imposed by various countries 
   
• Switzerland has extended confinement measures by one week, until 26 April, and the Federal Council will discuss the process for reopening at its 16 April meeting

• The UK government is likely to decide on a three-week extension of the lockdown at its meeting today. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s condition is improving, according to comments made by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak
   
• China reported 63 new symptomatic cases on 8 April, of which 61 cases were imported. It also reported 56 new asymptomatic cases that are awaiting confirmation. Of these, 28 were imported from overseas 
   
• Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea reported 39 new cases, the lowest number since 21 February. Of these, 23 cases were imported, consisting of returning South Korean nationals. On the other hand, Japan and Singapore have been facing substantial rises in their respective epidemic curves. In Japan, the rise is partly the result of more active testing since late March. Singapore’s 142 new cases were mostly locally transmitted cases 
   
• Testing technology continues to improve. South Korea’s Centre for Disease Control announced today the start of “pooling” protocol that will further increase the speed and efficiency of its RT-PCR (real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) tests. 

Monetary and fiscal measures

• Euro area finance ministers are reconvening today after failing to agree a common European fiscal response to the crisis yesterday, after disagreements between the Italian and the Dutch delegations
   
• The minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed serious concerns from the Federal Reserve about the functioning of the Treasury market. This explains the unprecedented Fed market interventions since. Meanwhile, Fed staff did not make a second half forecast. Instead, the FOMC considered two weaker-inflation scenarios. This reinforces the idea that the Fed funds rate is likely to stay at zero for a long time, regardless of when GDP recover
   
• The Bank of England and the UK Treasury announced an agreement to extend the Treasury’s overdraft account, the Ways & Means facility at the BoE, as a “temporary and short-term” measure to help the government finance measures during the Covid-19 crisis. The facility was last used during the financial crisis for a maximum amount of GBP19.9 billion.

Economic impact

• The economic impact from the Covid-19 crisis is becoming increasingly evident as a number of macroeconomic data releases and official forecasts are published
   
• Germany is expected to see negative growth of -4.2%  in 2020, according to the forecast produced for the government by five economic institutes, while French GDP is contracting by -1.5% for every two weeks of lockdown according to the Banque de France
   
• Official forecasts in Switzerland see a contraction of about 7% if the lockdown measures are lifted by May, and 10% in a worst case scenario where measures persist for longer

• In the UK, new estimates on the government’s plan to cover the wages of workers laid-off by employers through the lockdown, suggest that the cost may be as much as four times higher than the GBP10 billion originally estimated by the Treasury
   
• The World Trade Organisation forecasts a contraction of as much as 32% in global trade for 2020

Portfolio positioning

• The trend has turned more positive in the past days, but we do not believe that all the conditions for a sustained equity market rally are in place just yet. We continue to monitor the slowdown in European and US infection rates and the likelihood of a second wave of infections in Asia. Market attention will gradually shift away from the outbreak and towards exit strategies and the economic impact. There are both negative and positive catalysts ahead: positive Covid-19 developments may be mitigated by worrisome news flow including weak economic data, dividend cuts and credit rating downgrades 

• We continue to adjust our portfolio exposures. Most recently, we have increased exposure to policy-backed, undervalued assets, such as investment-grade credit
   
• We have also readjusted our global equity exposure in line with our tactical targets, and rebalanced our regional equity allocation by reducing our position in global emerging markets and increasing exposure to Asian equity markets. We have taken profit on the short leg of the put spread trade.

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