the global carbon market opportunity.

    Over the last 70 years, economic growth has been tied to an enormous increase in fossil fuel consumption, agricultural expansion and materials extraction. Since 1950, global average prosperity has increased more than four-fold. Over the same time, as we have torn down forests, depleted soils and drilled beneath our oceans, fossil fuel use has risen from 20,000 terawatt-hours per year to nearly 140,000.

    Now, our global economic model is changing. We are moving away from today’s linear, wasteful model, towards a new model. An economy that is Circular, Lean, Inclusive and Clean. We call this the CLIC® economy.

    At Lombard Odier we believe this transformation will be supported by carbon markets.

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    a cornerstone.

    Today’s high-emissions economy is predicated on a major market failure – the exclusion of the environmental cost of carbon emissions and other externalities from the price of goods and services. In omitting this cost – for carbon emissions true cost estimates range between USD 51 per tonne and USD 124 per tonne – producers and consumers have been sheltered from the downstream impact of their decisions, and incentivised to follow a linear ‘take-make-waste’ economic model.

    By including the price of emissions in the cost of doing business, companies are incentivised to adopt low-carbon technologies and adapt their working practices

    Carbon markets can help correct this failure. By including the price of emissions in the cost of doing business, companies are incentivised to adopt low-carbon technologies and adapt their working practices. Over time, consumers see prices shift in favour of an economic model that re-uses and recycles more and emits and discards less.

    Today’s carbon markets provide proof of the concept. Between 2005 and 2019, following the introduction of the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), carbon emissions in the bloc fell by 35%5. Over the same period GDP grew 42%, demonstrating that growth need not be accompanied by increased emissions. The European Commission described the EU’s ETS as “a cornerstone of the EU’s policy to combat climate change,” and its “key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

    Carbon markets in the Eastern United States and in California have seen similar success, with carbon emissions reductions of 47% and 26% respectively. ETSs have since followed elsewhere. In 2015, South Korea became the first emerging economy to launch a nationwide carbon market. In 2021, China launched a national ETS covering the power sector – now the world’s largest ETS, covering 7% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. And, also launched in 2021, a global market-based measure now covers carbon emissions from most international flights.

    our strategy.

    Our analysis shows that the global average price of carbon must rise about five-fold by 2030 and seventeen-fold by 2050 if we are to meet the Paris climate goal. 

    The global average price of carbon must rise about five-fold by 2030 and seventeen-fold by 2050 if we are to meet the Paris climate goal

    For investors, carbon instruments offer a number of potential benefits. They can act as a natural hedge against the adverse effects of climate policies on the earnings of many companies; many carbon markets contain in-built mechanisms to protect against inflation; and by offering returns with low correlation to major asset classes they can be used to diversify portfolios.

    Yet our research shows that, globally, portfolios are almost universally short carbon. Few investors take into account the real and serious risks that the climate transition brings, and many are exposed to the risk of a sudden carbon price “squeeze” should regulations and climate commitments tighten.

    …we aim to capture the most attractive risk/return opportunities in this new set of assets that we believe will underpin the transition to a CLIC® economy

    For investors, a detailed knowledge of the market is essential. Investing in carbon instruments entails navigating governmental, economic, and reputational risks, in addition to understanding the disruptive potential of new technologies. Through our careful monitoring and analysis of market, policy and technological developments, we aim to capture risk/return opportunities in this new set of assets. 

    where we are.

    Our heritage is Swiss, yet our outlook and mind set are resolutely international. With over 25 offices globally, we are able to serve our clients all over the world.

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