To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, total greenhouse gases (GHG) must fall by 7.6% per annum until 2030 and transport emissions need to almost halve by 2050. Increased mobility of people and goods will be an important feature of future economic growth, but even as mobility rises, emissions must fall. 

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    We believe transport is undergoing a sustainability transition. This represents significant investment opportunities and a way to build a more resilient, sustainable society

    Cleaner modes of transport are emerging. The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is one such example. We believe EV penetration is reaching a tipping point, with technological improvements meaning that life-cycle emissions are now lower for EVs than combustion engines. 

    Micro-vehicles are on the rise in conjunction with Mobility-as-a-Service, as seen with car-pooling, ride sharing, and increased encouragement of seamlessly integrated public-private transport systems. Soft mobility or micro-mobility solutions such as bicycle schemes and scooters enable people to move around cities efficiently whilst offering decarbonisation benefits. Railways, pooled mobility, and micro mobility options can reduce the carbon footprint of a journey by up to 90%.

    Railways, pooled mobility, and micro mobility options can reduce the carbon footprint of a journey by up to 90% 

    In future cities, less space may be devoted to cars. Redesign of urban spaces away from the current car-centric model to cater to other, more sustainable forms of shared mobility could free up valuable space. The removal of parking spots and road simplification may increase developable areas in city centres by 15-20%. Increasing bicycle lanes, making pedestrianised roads the new normal and promoting shuttle transport could transform how we move around our cities.

    We anticipate urban centres with green construction practices in place that include energy-saving measures, such as insulation, solar energy, efficient lighting and heating, and the use of energy storage solutions

    Around 60% of the urban environment that will host the world’s population by 2050 is yet to be constructed. We anticipate urban centres with green construction practices in place that include energy-saving measures, such as insulation, solar energy, efficient lighting and heating, and the use of energy storage solutions. 

    Electrification may be sufficient to decarbonise short-haul transport but we must rethink long-haul to decarbonise harder-to-abate, long distance and heavy-duty transport. Heavy-duty transport accounts for half of all transport-related emissions.

    For short-haul aviation, innovation in vehicle design (such as blended wing design) and vehicle electrification are making decarbonisation increasingly possible. But in order to keep trade flowing and international supply chains uninterrupted, long-haul transport growth is likely to remain essential for future economic growth.

    Alternative energy sources such as hydrogen, synfuels and sustainable biofuels appear to be solutions for many long-distance trips and require significant infrastructure and technology advancement to bring to market. Hydrogen, for instance, is a promising technology for both the rail sector and shipping. Hydrogen heavy-duty trucks are soon to hit the roads whilst hydrogen trains are already running in Europe. The aviation industry poses significant challenges. For long-haul aviation, technology developments such as sustainable fuels are likely to become increasingly important over the next few years.

    Regulators can play a major part in driving greener long-haul transport innovation. A greater focus on lifecycle emissions and circularity in vehicle production and usage – material efficiencies, battery reuse and recycling, vehicle-to-grid – will allow transport to dematerialise, reduce waste, improve resource efficiency, cut emissions, and support a growing urban population. Furthermore, there is an overarching enabler that is deeply embedded in this revolution – digitalisation. Digitalisation can allow for integrated transport eco-systems and enable remote working, while generating investment opportunities in zero-emissions technologies and mobility-as-a-service.

    Mobility will be an important cog in our future economic development. However, we believe future mobility needs to be equitable, resilient, cost-effective, and clean. 

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