FT Rethink
Planetary boundaries: the safe operating limits of humanity
From climate change to deforestation and overfishing, humanity is destabilising the environment on multiple fronts. We are approaching a point of no return, where the damage we have done to the planet will become irreversible. To prevent this catastrophic outcome, we must operate within a set of limits known as planetary boundaries.
Watch our video, in collaboration with the Financial Times on planetary boundaries with Michael Urban, our Chief Sustainability Strategist.
Know your limits
The concept of planetary boundaries was first proposed in 2009 by a group of researchers from the Stockholm Resilience Centre led by Johan Rockström1, who recognised that the Earth is a complex, interconnected system that can be significantly impacted by a range of human activities. For example, burning fossil fuels for energy releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which contributes to global warming. Deforestation and other changes to land use can also have significant effects on the climate, as well as on the loss of biodiversity and other aspects of Earth’s ecosystems.
To capture the ways in which we could destabilise the environment and provide a framework to help avoid doing so, the researchers identified nine planetary boundaries within which we can operate without risking Earth’s ability to support human and other forms of life.
How are we doing?
Unfortunately, humanity has already caused six of the nine planetary boundaries to be breached.
1. Climate change
The planetary boundary for climate change is defined as the concentration of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere that will not cause irreversible damage to Earth’s climate system. Currently, we’re exceeding this boundary2, with atmospheric CO2 levels currently at an all-time high3. If we fail to bring this concentration down to safe levels by reducing our emissions, global temperatures will continue to rise until extreme weather becomes the norm, leading to natural disasters with profound consequences for our society and planet.
2. Ocean acidification
This planetary boundary refers to the level of acidity that Earth’s oceans can tolerate without harming marine ecosystems. Although we have yet to breach this boundary, ocean acidity has increased by 30% since the Industrial Revolution. Breaching this boundary would have a range of harmful effects on marine ecosystems upon which we depend for food, medicines, and other ecosystem services.
Read also: The Blue Economy – five ways to save our oceans
3. Ozone layer
This boundary defines the level of damage that can be done to Earth’s protective ozone layer without causing significant harm to the biosphere as more harmful ultraviolet light reaches the planet’s surface. We have breached this boundary in the past: refrigerators, aerosol sprays, and many other products often contained substances that, when they escaped into the stratosphere, cause ozone to break down. However, in an example of how human cooperation can reverse breaches of our planetary boundaries, 1987’s Montreal Protocol banned the production of ozone-depleting substances globally, an intervention that has since allowed the ozone layer to recover.
4. Forest degradation
Forests play a vital role in regulating the climate, which is why Forest Degradation defines a safe limit for deforestation. But with only around 62% of forested land remaining, we are on the wrong side of this planetary boundary. If we were to reverse this breach, we would significantly increase our forests’ capacity to sequester carbon from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. In turn, this would help us return to the right side of the first planetary boundary: climate change.
Read also: Putting an end to deforestation – starting local, going global
5. Agrochemical pollution
This planetary boundary refers to the levels of nutrients, such as nitrogen and phosphorus, that can be introduced into Earth’s ecosystems without harming their functioning. Pollution and overuse of fertilisers have caused this boundary to be breached. Unless we switch to more sustainable farming techniques, soil degradation will continue causing significant damage to crop yields, creating knock-on effects throughout food systems at a time when Earth’s population is continuing to increase.
6. Freshwater overuse
This boundary defines the amount of fresh water that we can extract and use without disrupting Earth’s water cycle. This year, the Stockholm Resilience Centre announced that we are now breaching this boundary, following new research4 that shows a significant reduction in soil moisture levels globally.5 More sustainable farming techniques can also help reduce our water consumption, along with other interventions such as re-using water that isn’t heavily polluted or redesigning urban parks to store and release rainwater.
7. Biodiversity loss
This boundary is defined by the amount of damage that can be done to Earth’s biodiversity without undermining the functioning and resilience of the biosphere. With extinction rates currently 100–1,000 times higher than the baseline rate6, human activities like deforestation have taken us beyond this planetary boundary. Among the negative consequences of this breach is a threat to our economy: biodiversity is a significant component of Earth’s natural capital, upon which 50% of the global economy is dependent.7
Read also: Two challenges, many solutions for investors: where biodiversity protection meets decarbonisation
8. Air pollution
This planetary boundary refers to the amount of aerosols – tiny particles – present in the Earth’s atmosphere, which can cause air pollution while contributing to climate change. Although researchers are still working to define effective measures for this planetary boundary, it’s generally accepted that human activity has contributed to an increase in atmospheric aerosols8. One of the casualties of this increase is our cities’ air quality, with 99% of the world’s population now breathing air that exceeds the World Health Organization’s guideline limits for pollution.9
9. Toxic waste
This boundary is about the level of synthetic chemical pollutants that can be tolerated by the Earth’s ecosystems without ill effect. Following the publication of a new study10 that assessed the impact of synthetic chemicals on the environment, the Stockholm Resilience Centre announced earlier this year that we have breached this planetary boundary. A particular problem is plastics, which themselves contain over 10,000 other chemicals: the total mass of plastics on Earth is now twice as great as all living mammals, and around 80% of plastics remain in the environment.11
Returning to our safe operating limits
The root cause of these breaches is our unsustainable economic model, which we characterise as WILD: Wasteful, Idle, Lopsided, and Dirty. At Lombard Odier, we believe that we can only return to our safe operating limits by transitioning to a CLIC® economy: one that is Circular, Lean, Inclusive, and Clean.
Crucial to this transition will be the unfolding of 3+1 major system changes. We expect, in energy systems, that electricity’s share of final energy demand will hit 74% by 2050 – up from just 20% today. Meanwhile, in land and oceans systems, 30% of global oceans and agricultural land equivalent to the size of China must be returned to nature in the coming decade. In materials systems, a shift is required in order to extract and use 30% less primary materials. And the transformation of all of these systems will be accelerated by powerful incentives produced by a fourth system: carbon markets.
Although these changes are already underway, we must accelerate the transition if we are to reverse the breaches of our planetary boundaries before it’s too late. The future of the environment and our society, then, depends on whether we can muster the bold action and leadership required to do what we know we must.
1 Stockholm Resilience Centre (n.d.) ‘Planetary boundaries’. Available here.
2 Steffen et al. (2015) ‘Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet’. Available here.
3 NASA (2022) ‘Carbon dioxide’. Available here.
4 Wang-Erlandsson et al. (2022) ‘A planetary boundary for green water’, Nature. Available here.
5 Stockholm Resilience Centre (2022) ‘Freshwater boundary exceeds safe limits’. Available here.
6 HM Treasury (2021) ‘The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review’. Available here.
7 World Economic Forum (2020) ‘Nature Risk Rising: Why the Crisis Engulfing Nature Matters for Business and the Economy’. Available here.
8 Borunda, A. (2019) ‘Aerosols, explained’, National Geographic. Available here.
9 World Health Organisation (n.d.) ‘Air pollution.’ Available here.
10 Persson et al. (2022) ‘Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities’, Environmental Science and Technology. Available here.
11 Stockholm Research Centre (2022) ‘Safe planetary boundary for pollutants, including plastics, exceeded, say researchers’. Available here.
Important information
This document is issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd or an entity of the Group (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”). It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a document. This document was not prepared by the Financial Research Department of Lombard Odier.
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