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Rethink Perspectives – Navigating complexity in the face of tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation and AI
How should investors approach the twin challenges of a fragmenting geopolitical order and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI)? How are these seismic shifts interacting? And in an increasingly noisy world, how can we filter out the important investment signals?
These were the challenges tackled at Lombard Odier’s March edition of Rethink Perspectives. Held recently in London, host Duncan MacIntyre, Limited Partner and UK region head at Lombard Odier, asked delegates to join expert speakers in rethinking today’s macroeconomic and market environment, and in building a framework for navigating today’s unprecedented complexity.
“Back to basics” - the macroeconomic perspective
Dr Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier Chief Economist and CIO Switzerland, began by explaining that when faced with uncertainty, there are two vital elements in an investor’s toolkit – “an intellectual framework to filter the signal from the noise, and the ability to stay open-minded.”
In an uncertain and complex world, investors should “get back to basics,” he said. “We are in an expansion cycle, there is growth in Asia, the US, and Europe. When we focus on the economic signals, there’s nothing to suggest that this is about to end.”
“So far that expansion has been dominated by the US,” Dr Chaar continued. “Europe has been okay – Switzerland, France, the UK, Spain – while the clear underperformer is Germany.”
In an uncertain and complex world, investors should “get back to basics”
Likening the US outperformance to a car travelling at high speed, he noted that other developed countries are quickly being left in the rearview mirror.
“Why has the US outperformed?” he asked. “Real incomes are on the rise in the US, the UK and Europe. The difference is that when Americans have money to spare, they consume – in Europe, Europeans, however, save. This divergence explains US economic velocity.”
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For Europe and China, who both rely on production and exports for growth, tariffs – which President Trump has already imposed on China and threatened to impose on Europe – are a problem.
“There are two Chinas,” said Dr Chaar. “‘Supply China’ is good at producing stuff cheaply, and ‘Supply China’ is doing okay, although tariffs will be a headwind,” he said. “But ‘Demand China’ is not doing so well. Chinese consumers are saving rather than spending. This is why the US is outperforming, and there is currently no negative signal from the US labour market to suggest that Americans will lose their jobs, and therefore cut back on consumption, and so no indication that the cycle will die.”
Investing in the new world order
Another reason for US outperformance, Dr Chaar explained, is the geopolitical shift from a world of “interdependence to independence.” This shift, he said, “means massive investment plans and industry subsidies. Governments need to secure energy, industry, defence, infrastructure and technology. To do this, they need lots of capital expenditure. The US is leading this race so far, with lots of public and private investment in energy via fracking, in technology with the CHIPS Act, and in infrastructure with the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act].” Total investments, worth USD 3 trillion, he noted, “are twice the size of the Marshall Plan that rebuilt Europe after WWII.”
However, he added, Europe is now waking up to the need to invest, as shown by the recent announcement from the new German government of plans to invest EUR 500 billion over the next few years – over 10% of the national GDP – in defence and infrastructure. For investors, he said, this is a bigger story than US tariffs, and a sign that the European economy may begin to narrow the gap with the US.
Such investments can pay off quickly. “Ten years ago, US oil production was six million barrels per day; with the development of fracking, it’s now 14 million,” said Dr Chaar. “This ensured energy security when Russia disrupted supply and it allowed the US to sell to Europe at high prices. When you start to invest, it doesn’t take much to secure what’s important to you.”
I’m all for more debt in Europe, but there is good debt and bad debt. What you do with the debt matters – it must be productive spending
Crucially, though, investors must ask how such investment will be paid for. In the US, Dr Chaar told the event, this investment has come from extra debt. Traditionally, Europe has been careful to keep debt levels lower. So should Europe borrow to invest?
“I’m all for more debt in Europe,” he said, “but there is good debt and bad debt. What you do with the debt matters – it must be productive spending. And when you assess a country’s ability to finance debt you must consider the private sector as well, not just the public sector.”
Governments and investors must also take inflation into account, Dr Chaar added.
“There will be more inflation in the US than in Europe. If we take Trump literally, and he imposes the maximum tariffs threatened, it would create an inflation bump of nearly 4%, though this is still not close to the high inflation of recent years. But most likely President Trump’s tariffs will not be as high as his threats. In the moderate scenario, we are likely to see inflation nearer 3%, which is manageable,” said Dr Chaar, “we are unlikely to have a huge inflation shock due to tariffs.”
US outperformance has turned the US into an investment vacuum cleaner, sucking up capital flows
Market strategies – how should investors respond?
“What does this mean for markets and portfolios?” Dr Chaar asked. “US outperformance has turned the US into an investment vacuum cleaner, sucking up capital flows. Everyone wanted exposure to US equities and be long the dollar. The weight of the US in global equity markets reached 70%, while Europe was at 12%. What do we do in this context – do we get out, or do we stay in?”
“We see no strong signal that the big US firms are losing their ability to make profits. However, we are mindful that there is little margin for error – these companies must continue to deliver excellence.”
“These are our five lines of defence,” he added. “First, we have quality fixed income of extended duration. Second, we employ structured products which help in times of volatility. Thirdly, for the first time in years, we have increased our exposure to hedge funds for eligible investors, as this helps create dispersion. Fourth, we are overweight gold. China needs to diversify its reserves, and gold is one way for it to do this. And lastly, where appropriate, we have private assets and especially private equity. This can help to stabilise portfolios.”
Artificial intelligence – an existential revolution
Alexandre Pouget, Professor in Basic Neuroscience at the University of Geneva, then took the stage as the evening’s discussion turned to the topic of AI.
“The critical point is that AI is not another tech revolution,” he began. “It’s way more than that – it’s an existential revolution. It’s the next stage in the evolution of intelligence.”
After years of wondering when AI would become better than humans at any one task, it is now just a matter of time before it becomes better in all domains
After years of wondering when AI would become better than humans at any one task, it is now just a matter of time before it becomes better in all domains, Professor Pouget explained. For investors in multiple sectors this means it is already becoming a gamechanger.
“Every month there’s a new paper on the potential applications of AI” in healthcare, for example. “I tell my medical students they must train in AI. Everything will change. Cancer is going to be solved by AI.”
“The way AI is having an impact has a lot to do with demography. We’re in an ageing society, with a shrinking workforce. If you’re a manufacturing society you can fill this gap with robots. The most advanced ageing societies – Japan, Germany, South Korea – this is where you find most robotics. But if you’re a services society, how do you replace missing workers? With AI. We believe this is a trend that will continue. We have exposure to AI in portfolios through US equities, which means being exposed to tech.”
AI has now become a key battleground in global geopolitics, Dr Chaar continued.
“Today it feels that we are in a strategic competition between the US and China. Technology and AI is at the centre of this confrontation. It requires a lot of work and investment. The Chinese are doing that, and the Americans are spending a lot on technology to keep the lead.”
As the event concluded, Mark Goddard, UK Chief Executive Officer at Lombard Odier, led a Q&A session, where guests asked how the AI regulatory sphere is evolving, and whether regulations could threaten profits at tech firms.
Dr Chaar reminded the event of the need to stick to the basics.
“In the end, the stock market reacts to one thing – it rewards the ability of companies to make money. Is big tech’s ability to make money limited by the threat of regulations? Perhaps one day, but it doesn’t seem that profit-limiting regulation is coming in the next quarter. We don’t want to play it too smart. Companies are still matching high expectations. As long as the signal remains positive, we’ll continue to play along.”
Lombard Odier is taking a similarly focussed approach when it comes to the new US administration, Dr Chaar said.
We must focus on the basics, following key trends such as geopolitical fragmentation and AI advances, while ensuring portfolio diversification and “lines of defence” through assets like private equity, long-duration fixed income, and gold
Asked about President Trump’s announcement of a USD 500 billion investment in the AI ‘Stargate Project’, Dr Chaar said, “the discipline we’ve adopted towards this US administration is only to focus on what is concretely happening, things that we can measure and we can model. This USD 500 billion is an announcement, it’s not yet concrete. We’re in a world of a lot of noise. We want to spend time on what is actually happening, not commit too much based on [political] announcements.”
At Lombard Odier, our task is to navigate clients safely through an increasingly noisy and complex world. As Dr Chaar explained, we must focus on the basics, following key trends such as geopolitical fragmentation and AI advances, while ensuring portfolio diversification and “lines of defence” through assets like private equity, long-duration fixed income, and gold.
As the world moves faster, it is essential that we take a step back, to calmly evaluate and provide a fresh investment perspective for ourselves and our clients. Embodied by our series of Rethink Perspectives events, our philosophy – since our founding in 1796 – has been to ‘rethink everything®’. In a world of complex and rapid change, this approach has become more important than ever.
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