Global Investment Strategy: what comes after a sharp recovery?

There are still challenges, such as the evolution of the pandemic and concerns about slowing growth, but fears about overheating economies are now mostly behind us. Globally, growth is slowing to levels that are more in line with each economy’s long-term potential.

The critical element at this point in time is US monetary policy, and how the Federal Reserve’s asset tapering will impact economies and markets in the US and rest of the world.

We keep a moderate pro-risk stance in our clients’ portfolios. We prefer equities over high-quality fixed income, and focus on European and UK stocks, where growth should be stronger in the near term, as well as cyclical and value equities, which have more catch-up potential. We also took advantage of recent market volatility to increase our positions in Chinese stocks. In addition, we believe investors can look for additional returns in infrastructure and real estate, two asset classes that should benefit from continued fiscal stimulus and low yields. Crucially, the transition to a net-zero economy offers strategic opportunities for superior risk-adjusted returns.

While the market outlook remains constructive through the year-end, we expect more volatility in the coming months. Active portfolio management is key. Discover our investment strategy in this new video featuring Stéphane Monier, CIO Private Bank, and Samy Chaar, Chief economist.

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