Global Investment Strategy Q4 2020: Fragile recovery as US elections loom

The return to economic normality will take time. Progress on Covid-19 vaccines holds the key to unlocking a full recovery.

The pandemic is not the only economic danger at this stage. To protect the fragile recovery, governments and monetary authorities around the world must continue to provide support to workers, businesses and markets. This is particularly true in the United States, where the fate of a new pandemic stimulus package remains undecided.

As we head into the final months of the year, the US elections will dominate investors’ attention. Regardless of the outcome – Joe Biden or Donald Trump – the US’s economic outlook should not change because both candidates will focus on supporting a strong recovery at home. Still, American voters’ choice will have important implications on business conditions, fiscal policy, leadership of the Federal Reserve and international trade.

An unclear or legally contested result could generate weeks of political uncertainty and market volatility. That could offer opportunities to invest in risk assets. Discover our investment strategy for the final quarter of 2020 with CIO Private Bank Stéphane Monier and Chief Economist Samy Chaar.